Why are NHL PPs so predictable?

Discussion & examples from this week's NHL playoff games

I just received the following questions from a minor hockey coach and NHL fan.

Why do most NHL teams use a static 1-3-1 on their in-zone powerplay instead of having their players off the puck moving into space to get open? The Rangers did that effectively in one of their first games against the Hurricanes and it really jumped out at me.

Why are NHL teams wedded to the torpedo (“Single Drop” or “Double Drop”) entry system, which relies on just one or two players to come through with speed and precision? How hard would it be to have a more concerted entry with three or four or five players moving across together with speed? 

-Matt

There’s a simple lens through which to interpret Matt’s argument.

Whenever you have a definite advantage (i.e. a 5v4 powerplay), it usually pays to run the same optimized play as often as possible. The main benefit of both the 1-3-1 PP and the drop entry is that people have clear responsibilities. Predictability in roles and routes equals higher shots/hour (KPI for PP in-zone) and a higher setup percentage (KPI for PP breakout/entry).

Meanwhile, even-strength offense lends itself to unpredictability, since you’ll have to manufacture a 2v1 or 1v0 where the opposition least expects.

However, as Matt notes, unpredictability eventually becomes a competitive advantage, especially in a best-of-seven playoff environment.

I touched upon this argument in an article I wrote nearly four years ago.

An iconic scene from the movie The Founder details the process the McDonald brothers developed their Speedee Service System, one which changed the restaurant industry as we know it:

And that is how we should think about systems, not as simply a floor plan of where people should stand (1-2-2, 1-3-1, 1-1-3, etc.), but rather a dynamic combination of scheme, flow and output.

The scheme is useless if it doesn’t enable flow. And flow is right only when it achieves sufficient output.

So the idea when designing and refining a system should be the following:

1) Quantify the desired output (whether in burgers per minute or shots per hour)

2) Experiment with schemes (changing the kitchen layout or where players stand)

3) Test for flow (observe changes from a high vantage point) in order to improve the team process.

The Flavor of Coaching

The most effective NHL powerplays start with a defined floor plan, but with players walking the line between unpredictability (to create mismatches) and predictability (to ensure quality of execution).

Edmonton Oilers (In-Zone)