Jonathan Dahlén, an unsigned prospect whose NHL rights belong to the San Jose Shark, is the most dangerous scorer in HockeyAllsvenskan, Sweden’s second-strongest league.
The 23-year-old left winger leads the league in regular-season scoring with 71 points in just 45 games and paces Timrå IK with six points in as many postseason matches.
At the time of writing, Timrå is fighting for promotion to the SHL (the top Swedish league) and is up 2-0 against Västerviks IK.
Dahlén’s production in lower-level Swedish competition is beyond reproach. As a point-a-game player both at the U20 and Allsvenskan levels, he certainly looked like a potential NHL difference-maker when the Ottawa Senators picked him in the second round of the 2016 draft.
According to Byron Bader’s Hockey Prospecting model, Dahlén’s closest statistical comparables are Sheldon Keefe, Raffi Torres, Steve Sullivan, Ryan Putulny and Jack Roslovic, four players who have all had noteworthy North American pro careers.
After studying Dahlén’s game, I would associate him most closely to Keefe, the current Toronto Maple Leafs coach who I worked with for several years, first as an analyst and then as one of his assistants.
The comparison doesn’t necessarily bode well for the Swede’s NHL future.
“I don’t think any kid played more hockey than I did, growing up,” Sheldon once confided during a long car ride. The sheer amount of work he put in honed his instincts and his willpower. But it also led him to play offense from a grinder’s perspective.
Unlike Steve Sullivan, another undersized OHL superstar and a close statistical comparable in Bader’s model, Sheldon didn’t have the requisite bridge skills (skating, puck protection and physical details) that allowed him to transfer his junior scoring to the big leagues.
Through brute force Sheldon eventually got into 125 NHL games with the Tampa Bay Lightning. But then he burned out, pivoted and began a second, far more productive chapter in hockey.
On the surface Dahlén bears little resemblance to Keefe as a player.
Actually I think his touch with the puck, his playmaking and his OZ vision are pretty good.
But I’m also not so sure he’ll even get into 125 NHL games like Sheldon did.
In certain important ways, I believe that Jonathan Dahlén is under-skilled.
After tearing up the Allsvenskan between 2016 and 2018 (47 and 48 NHL equivalency points) he scored only 33 points in 57 games split between the Utica Comets and the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL (only 28 NHLe) before packing his bags and returning to Sweden.
Dahlén is not and likely never will be a high-end forechecker or shutdown defender. But for the large part even his offense deserted him once he had less time and space to operate.
Why?
No bridge skills = the points dry up in the AHL.
I encourage skepticism in hockey analysis, so here are some visuals to illustrate what I’m talking about.
Below are all of Dahlén’s puck touches, plus a few telling defensive sequences, from his team’s 4-3 overtime win in Game 2 against Västerviks.
Here are my notes:
Period 1
18:55 - Red #54 receives a breakout pass on the left half-wall. Moves it quickly to C in the middle for a controlled exit assist. Good quick play, but doesn’t show instinct to get off the wall and onto the dot lane before attempting a pass.
16:30 - Very similar spot to previous puck touch. Instead of making a play, he smacks the puck off the boards and out instead of holding and problem-solving White Team’s forecheckers. Low DZ poise shown early in a shift.
Västerviks quickly counter and records a shot on net. Red #54 very passive in DZ coverage. Instead of pressuring for a turnover, he holds the dot lane and allows puck movement on his side of the ice. It could be part of TIK’s system, but the player also shows a lack of initiative and not that he is “too good for the league.”
15:37 - 5v4 PP. Instead of being an active participant on TIK’s Double-Drop PP breakout, Red #54 anchors at the far blue line. Again, if he were too good for the Allsvenskan, I’d perfer to see him in a more influencial role.
Once set up in the OZ, Red #54 is in his element. He shows good touch, a shade of deception, then sets up a high-danger scoring chance by making a shot-pass from the right flank to the bumper player.
12:56 - Back at 5v5, Red #54 is an expert at finding space high in the zone when his team wins an OZ faceoff. He reports to the spot between both Ds, work his way down the funnel and creates a high-danger shot coming down the left flank.
7:10 - On the forecheck, Red #54 attempts a hit but misses. As the play goes the other way, he backchecks slowly and swings away from the puck, hoping for a long feed from a teammate. The puck is eventually rimmed into the OZ. He gathers the puck but immediately throws it at net instead of trying to get off the wall.
6:15 - OZ FO win by TIK. Red #54 drifts high again in search of open space, but his LD sifts the puck at net. The shot is deflected in. 1-0.
2:11 - Red #54 receives a breakout pass at the left wall. He takes two strides toward the middle and gets off the wall. But inexplicably he flips the puck 20ft in the air rather than continuing for a controlled exit. Turnover.
Second Period
19:16 - Red #54 does well to retrieve a loose puck and spin off a defender. But his feet get stuck in a sort of 10-2 mohawk. His weight is centered and he is not able to explode out of the retrieval. Even though he is not under immediate pressure, he makes a low-value pass to the point instead of continuing with the puck.
19:05 - He is first back to retrieve a VVIK clear. Instead of aggressively attacking the middle and beating F1 with his feet, he hesitates, then turns back and makes the puck someone else’s problem.
16:43 - Red #54 swings back to start a TIK counter-attack. He uses crossovers to build speed but his weight is on his heels, causing him to pitch backwards. He takes his bottom hand off his stick to regain balance, then uses the 10-2 mohawk once again on the OZ entry. Eventually he skates himself into the corner and has to go low-to-high.
14:10 - Retrieves wall puck in OZ right half-wall. Has to go low-to-high. Makes a half-hearted poke attempt on the backcheck.
12:40 - 5v4. Comes off the bench and runs a great route to go on a breakaway. But the linesman whistles off-side.
12:12 - 5v4. Again he is anchored at the left far blue line. Tries to make a small area pass off the entry but gets stuck on the wall and turns the puck over.
10:57 - 5v5. Sprints the weak side of the ice on the breakout, then finds a small-area 2v1 for a successful entry.
10:06 - Off an OZ FO win, carries the puck high and then wrists a shot through traffic from center point. As TIK establishes a cycle, Red #54 shows good instincts to “pop” and get available in space when moving off the puck. 25 seconds later he sprints to the back post and narrowly misses connecting on a cross-seam pass.
7:35 - Another OZ cycle. Red #54 is netfront but makes a smart interchange with the puck carrier to get open. However he is too bashful at attacking the middle and makes a short uncontested pass to a teammate so that he can continue moving off the puck. 5 second later, he is set up for a high slot one-timer that almost trickles in.
5:40 - 5v4. Does well to thread a pass to the bumper player from the right flank, then crashes the back post and almost scores on the rebound.
Third Period
19:03 - Flies the DZ a tad early but is rewarded with an NZ area pass. Enters the OZ with speed, presents a dual threat (pass or shoot), then wrists a hard shot over the net. He sets up another shot on the ensuing high cycle, then forechecks and pins a TIK Dman to the boards.
16:53 - In DZ coverage he does not pressure the low-to-high carry on his side of the ice. TIK sifts a shot on net and almost scores on the rebound.
12:46 - Backtracks hard intially, then applies only token back pressure at his defensive blue line. As soon as a teammate is on the puck, he swings away to cheat for offense.
3:45 - He is easily frozen when attacked face-to-face by an opposing puck carrier.
2:02 - 5v6. Again allows VVIK to cycle on his side of the ice. Drifts too far toward the middle. VVIK scores from his side of the ice to force overtime.
1:38 - 5v5. OZ FO win play. Pops into the near-side corner, then throws a seam pass to a teammate at the far post.
Overtime
19:47 - Swings into middle on quick counter-attack. Middle entry. Exploits sagging VVIK D-man by taking a hard, screened shot. Hits the post.
17:10 - Skates the weak side on the breakout. Curls into the middle and delays to find a soft spot in coverage. Gets a pass in the high slot. Maintains control and scores the game-winner high on a VVIK goalie who is playing far too deep.
TIK wins 4-3 (OT).
All things considered Dahlén plays an excellent game and is especially dangerous off 5v5 OZ faceoffs, 5v5 OZ cycles and 5v4 power plays.
But I have a hard time seeing how this could translate to the NHL or even the AHL.
Not only do NHL scorers possess exquisite touch and high-end vision, but the consistently employed ones also have a knack of tilting the ice in their team’s favor even when the deck is not stacked in their favor.
Dahlén doesn’t defend well.
He doesn’t pressure well.
He’s not unusually good on exits or entries.
He’s not an exemplary shot-and-retriever.
At the AHL and NHL level, if you don’t improve the condition of the puck, you don’t get prime offensive minutes - OZ starts, PP time; good linemates.
It’s not too late for Dahlén. But if he expects to simply convert his Allsvenskan production into an NHL role, he might be disappointed, again.
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