The Four Levels of Scouting
How to outsmart the competition without outsmarting yourself
Originally published May 2020
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In a recent conversation with Rachel Doerrie and Ian Tulloch on the Staff & Graph podcast, I mentioned a mental model which I use when I scout. It came to me over the years as I tried to reconcile the various aspects of scouting, which is part science and part art.
The science part is now better understood thanks to work by people such as my friend Byron Bader of HockeyProspecting.com (whose work you see in the charts below).
The art part is harder to grasp, akin to reading between and beyond the lines in a book of ancient poetry. I’ll do my best to impart my perspective.
Level 1: The “Eye Test” (a.k.a. not really paying attention)
Is the kid Canadian? Loves the game!
Is he big and strong? Pro-ready!
Did he put up a lot of PIMs? Tough!
Did he have a lot of points last year? Future top-six NHLer!
Is he an undersized Swedish D? Moves the puck well!
The folks on TV say he’s good? He must be good!
The act of jumping to seemingly logical but ultimately groundless conclusions is one often done by people who haven’t done the work in really getting to know the player or the game.
This shortcut-taking is fine if you’re a casual fan. You might even do okay drafting per these heuristics in a fantasy hockey keeper pool. But if you work in the game or aspire to do so, it is simply not good enough.
Level 2: Understanding the recent past
To overcome typical hockey biases and to set yourself apart from other scouts, you simply have to develop tools which allow you to operate on Level 2.
If you are hardworking, have a good memory and strong communication skills, you could hang out in this area and do quite well for yourself, to be be honest. What are some signs that you are on Level 2?
You understand age-adjusted production, how putting up 100-point junior season at 16 means being a future hall-of-famer. At 17, an all-star, At 18, a good player. At 19, a long-shot. And at 20, a minor-leaguer.
You understand league equivalencies, how almost any amount of production is good production for a teenager in the SHL.
You understand play-driving and possession, as expressed by shot rates and expected goals.
You track microstats, which fill in (some of) the blanks between points, shots and what the player is actually capable of.
You watch games with your eyes but jot down specific notes about what you see, then reflect in an effort to better understand what matters and what doesn’t.
Understanding and using all of these techniques will put you ahead of 99% of all scouts working in hockey today.
Level 3: Influencing the future
My biggest takeaway working with elite coaches such as Darryl Belfry and Adam Nicholas (StrideEnvy) is that player development cannot be disassociated from scouting.
Players with solid junior production sometimes don’t translate because of technical weaknesses never addressed by the teams that draft them.
Players who score in minor pro sometimes can’t crack an NHL roster because their patterns of play are easily neutralized by high-level defenders.
Players with modest production in lower league occasionally play better against tougher competition because of their ability to leverage stronger linemates.
Happens all the time.
To really know player development is also to be an elite scout. If you know the past and you can change the future. You are a cut above.
Level 4 and beyond: The Metagame
Once you master the act of looking at a player in isolation, you will then need to account for his value on a marketplace with shifting conditions in order to gain an edge on the competition.
Poker players understand the metagame and frequently shift their strategies to avoid being exploited or found out by their opponents. The elite hockey scout develops a sense for how to do the same by understanding the market and having an accurate feel for which players are over-valued or under-valued by the industry.
Which leagues are strong or weak this year?
Which fundamental hockey traits have fallen out of fashion for no reason?
What are my positional needs?
How long can I wait on draft day and still get this player?
Does this player have intangible values aside from his tangible outputs?
These are important questions to think about at Level 4 and beyond, but a mistake to fixate on in Level 1.
As for Level 5 and what comes after, I have no idea. If you figure it out please tell me about it.
Dear Subscriber: If you enjoy this newsletter and want to see more free content, consider ordering a copy of my e-book Hockey Tactics 2020, edited by a Hall-of-Fame journalist and illustrated by an artist whose work you have surely already seen. Six chapters, more timely insights, more timeless principles. Get It Now