Earlier this week, NHL Network analyst Mike Kelly published a Twitter thread with glowing praise for rookie Macklin Celebrini. According to SportLogiq tracking data, San Jose’s rookie is already among league leaders in:
Controlled entries per game (1st in the NHL)
Open-ice dekes per game (5th)
Puck battles won (1st)
Loose puck recoveries (20th)
Blocked passes (26th)
Celebrini’s on-ice expected goals ratio (40.9 xGF% per Natural Stat Trick) has yet to catch up to his elite on-puck metrics, but I believe that possession metrics are trailing indicators for high end players who enter the league as teenagers. This was certainly the case for Jack Hughes, another first-overall pick who struggled to drive play in his early years with New Jersey.
Aside from high-end technical skills, Celebrini’s most impressive attribute may be his route efficiency. Once the natural center’s physical and mental development is complete, he’ll figure to be one of the most dominant pivots in the world, both in terms of individual actions (entries, chances; pucks won) and on-ice impact (shot, expected goal and actual goal differential).
Here are a few subtle examples.
DZC to Rush
As the low forward/center, SJS71’s job is to control the middle while his teammates force a turnover along the boards.
As STL bumps the puck behind the net, Celebrini turns tightly to stay square to the play rather than sloppily overrun his route, as many others would do. Those players are the ones who play C in juniors but are then converted to wingers at the pro level.
Moments later, a Blues forward makes an ill-advised pass into the slot. Celebrini is perfectly positioned to get the puck and earn a controlled entry.
Breakout to Rush
Celebrini, again in the middle, adjusts his speed as the Sharks defenseman rims the puck. He knows what’s coming but doesn’t arrive too early and crowd his left winger.
Instead Celebrini stays inside the dot lane, safely receives the bump off the wall and attacks the middle through the neutral zone.
OZ Forecheck, Tracking & OZ Possession
Unlike many high-scoring juniors just breaking into the NHL, Celebrini is not cheating for offense, quite the opposite. He is already showing signs of becoming an excellent defensive forward.
Even when Celebrini’s team doesn’t have the puck, he prioritizes the middle of the ice, adjusts his speed as the situation dictates and takes the minimum distance to his check.
The gulf between Celebrini’s elite microstats and his mediocre on-ice impacts can be explained by the following:
Incomplete physical/mental/tactical development are clear disadvantages when competing against fully-formed pros
Great young players tend to be ambitious
Ambition leads to mistakes small and large
NHL lottery picks tend to play on under-skilled and/or disorganized teams
All four factors come into play for Celebrini and other top prospects across the NHL. Once SJS71 gets a bit stronger and gains a better sense of what works and what doesn’t against the best players of the world, he’ll elevate his teammates and lift the Sharks out of the basement.