Team Identity: The Carolina Hurricanes' Chip & Charge Transition
Controlling the game without possessing the puck.
Year-in year-out the Carolina Hurricanes are near the top of the NHL when it comes to puck possession metrics such as Corsi% or Expected Goals %.
However what allows the Canes to create offensive threat is not their possession game per se, but rather their uncanny ability to bulldoze their way into the offensive zone and to force opponents into making mistakes close to their nets.
(Getty Images)
Friend of the newsletter Corey Sznajder is not only the most prolific data tracker on the hockey Twittersphere, but he is also a longtime Canes fan who knows the team better than anyone in the public domain.
Here is how Corey summarizes CAR’s style of play:
Carolina's saving grace is how long they can keep teams pinned in. They shoot a lot & are very good at getting the puck back. Eventually that breaks defenses down & opens up space for rebounds & seam passes. Getting the puck up ice & into the zone has been the problem.
Carolina’s volume-based approach is not always easy to on the eyes and runs counter to the more control-based philosophies of COL, TOR, VGK and MTL, among others.
(All charts courtesy of Corey Sznajder unless otherwise noted)
It would certainly be ill-advised for an NFL team to copy Carolina’s transitional play style. The Canes rely on short runs and punts to drive down-field, an inefficient approach that spells disaster in a possession-based sport such as football.
But the nature of hockey is such that changes of possession happen hundred of times over the course of a game. For Carolina chipping the puck into open ice, even for a turnover, means an additional opportunity to win it back in a favorable context.
Off a defensive zone faceoff win the Canes defenseman throw the puck off the wall, hoping to bypass all three New York Rangers forecheckers for a strong side exit. A more possession-conscious team such as the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Tampa Bay Lightning would instead look to use the weak side by going D-to-D behind the net and then finding the right winger posted at the half wall or higher.
The messy, ugly strong side wall play by Carolina results in an uncontrolled exit, which soon turns into a Rangers counter-attack. Unphased, the Canes work hard to pressure the puck, win a battle, and push the play up-ice with active Ds, four bodies on the strong side and a single weak-side option.
After bum-rushing the neutral zone the puck carrier chips the puck in. All three Canes forward forecheck to hem the Rangers in. It’s ground and pound hockey with little finesse and no threat off the rush.
From Corey:
Forecheck, force turnovers & score was the Canes’ blueprint from the regular season, but they were better at attacking off the rush in the NYR series.
A lot of that looked like it was from loading up the top line, though. Aho & Svechnikov had a few give & gos that they scored on.
(Data via Evolving-Hockey.com)
Forgoing the initial chance to carry the puck to the net means that the Canes will continue to under-perform their underlying statistics. Indeed since 2016 the team has never been able to turn its xGF rate (blue box) into an equivalent volume of actual goals.
On a positive note, the Canes are scoring more than ever thanks to the continued development of their young stars Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov, who selectively deviate from the gameplan to show off their high-end puck skills in transition.
The 2019-20 Hurricanes’ 2.63 goals for per hour is the franchise’s best offensive output in over a decade. That number could be even higher if the three young guns are given more opportunities to improvise and to help the team evolve its offensive mindset.
Further Reading: Why 2020 1st-round pick Seth Jarvis is a perfect add
Recapping The ‘Canes Chip & Charge Game
The Good:
Leads to great shot volume impacts
Lends itself to high-pressure defensive schemes
Is extremely hard to play against
The Bad:
Reduces chances/goals off the rush
Demands hard work and cooperation from all five skaters, at all times
Stifles offensive creativity of star players (unless they decide to do their own thing)
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