I just watched a neat 4.5 minute video about goal scoring.
Here it is.
The creators of the video cover several plays that NHL skaters have been using to light the lamp on a more regular basis.
Trends such as:
Shooting low against goalies who stay on their feet to read the play
Shooting under the goalie’s push leg (read on Hockey Arsenal)
Shooting short-angle, fade-away one-timers
Shooting high short-side against the Reverse VH
Making a late adjustment to change the shape of the release & the direction of the shot
Make no mistake, shooters who internalize these principles and become second-order thinkers (i.e. what does the goalie not want me to do? vs. what do I want to do?), will score more goals.
But they won’t necessarily score many goals.
All of the trends showcased in the video above boil down to two things:
Shooting where there’s less open net than usual (i.e. from bad angles or low vs. a butterfly goalie)
Disrupting your own shooting motion to add deception (in exchange for less velocity, accuracy and consistency)
In other words, doing things that don’t make sense…until they make perfect sense.
We see Nate MacKinnon, Auston Matthews and David Pastrnak catch goalies guessing wrong with these impressive, counterintuitive plays. But even for MacKinnon, Matthews and Pastrnak, volume is the key.
Last season MacKinnon had 405 regular-season shots (12.6% conversion). Pastrnak had 382 (12.3% conversion). Matthews, 371 (18.6%).
In baseball terms, these guys get on base.
Elite scorers create enough volume to have distinct shooting patterns. This allows them to strategically employ pattern breakers, tricks outlined in the video, to boost their conversation rates by a couple of percentage points.
For a player only taking 100-200 shots over the course of a season, these pattern breakers don’t provide the same bang for the puck because of the math involved.
What’s more, every low-percentage (bad) miss plays tricks on a lesser shooter’s mind. Would you aim five-hole on a grade-A chance, if you knew it was your only one of the night?
In conclusion:
Puck acquisition (off the pass, in space), transitional efficiency (controlled exit → controlled entry → OZ possession) and, to an extent, defensive play (forcing turnovers/defensive stops → getting back on offense) are the true drivers of goalscoring.
Out-scheming opposing netminders remains an important, if subordinate step.