Auston Matthews is just way too good.
Since joining the NHL in 2016, the Toronto Maple Leafs center has been a perennial Rocket Richard Trophy candidate whose biggest enemies have been injuries and a global pandemic.
Since scoring 40 in a full rookie season, Matthews has yet to play 82 regular-season games. In 2022, Matthews finally joined the 50, then the 60-goal club. It’s been a long time coming for a player who’s scored at over a 50G/82GP pace since 2019.
Matthews is physically gifted and has a rare scoring touch, but so do 40-goal scorers such as Patrik Laine, David Pastrnak, Kyle Connor, Kirill Kaprisov, Alex DeBrincat, etc.
So what sets TOR34 apart from these sharpshooters and from his earlier self?
A Race Against the Clock
Actually, why haven’t Laine, Pastrnak, Connor, Kaprisov and DeBrincat yet scored 50 in a season?
Because they’ve run out of time.
At the NHL level, 40-goal scorers and 50-goal scorers get roughly the same amount of ice time, which is to say first-line minutes at 5v5 and first-wave (and maybe even second-wave) deployment on the powerplay.
To soar into rarified air, then, a player has to find ways to become ever more efficient in a fixed number of opportunities.
Another way to explain this is by looking at shot volume vs. shooting percentage:
Alex Ovechkin scored a career-best 65 goals in 2007-08. He averaged 14.1 shots on net per 60 minutes and scored on 14.6% of those shots
Steven Stamkos notched 60 in 2011-12. He averaged 10.1 shots per 60 but shot 19.8%
This season to date, Matthews scored 60, averaging 13.9 shots/60 while shooting 17.2%
In their most prolific seasons, all three players converted at well above the league average. Stamkos and Matthews’ shooting percentages are about twice as good as that of an average NHLer (around 9%, depending on the year).
To go from a top-line scorer to a historically good one, the focus should therefore be on maximizing efficiency.
How Matthews “Found” 20 Extra Goals
As a teen, Matthews dominated by exploiting space against junior, college and Swiss-league defenders, then changing the angle and slinging the puck past exploitable goaltenders.
The two goals below were scored against NHL opponents, but illustrate rush plays high-scoring juniors like to create:
Once in zone, Matthews drifted high to find space and to get available for downhill shooting opportunities:
These two patterns were Matthews’ bread and butter in his rookie and sophomore NHL seasons.
However, opportunities to catch the puck with speed and in space are at a premium against stiff competition.
Scoring off the rush and coming downhill may take a player from 20 to 30 (or even 40) goals, but to take the next step, Matthews needed more.
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