Making the Most of Your Talent
A discussion with a future NHL first-rounder
I’ve been fortunate to meet many remarkable people in hockey since I started publishing this newsletter.
One of them is a top-15 ranked player on NHL Central Scouting’s North American skaters list, a highly creative offensive player coming off a productive season.
With the 2021 NHL Entry Draft coming up, many scouts weigh in on this player’s current level and pro potential.
Not all of their findings are positive.
Choosing to face criticism head-on, this young man and I talk through the implications of his perceived weaknesses.
He and I agree that our conversation can help other players make the most of their talent, so here is the gist of what we discussed.
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Facing the Critics
The number-one criticism I hear about this player is his propensity to make fancy, inefficient plays rather than simple, efficient ones.
While his rich toolkit allows him to problem-solve pressure and find solutions, it also tempts him to overreach his abilities and overlook the simplest, best option.
I share with him an especially critical report and he writes back:
“Yeah…that was a lot for me to take in. Not gonna lie.”
He tells me that he doesn’t read too many things written about him online. As a busy teenager heading into a pressure-packed summer, it’s probably the right call.
“I don’t mean to come across as too defensive, though. I know I have lots to learn and work on.”
I ask him to bear with me and that there’s a reason why we’re doing this.
Turning Criticism into Actionable Feedback
Typical gripes such as “questionable decision-making” and “prone to turnovers” are not actionable for this player. Yet coming from multiple sources they do point to a real development opportunity. So to turn the present negatives into a future positives, first we need to translate these comments into something more useful.
There’s a central idea behind all this. Any player should care about two things: frequency and success rate.
Frequency: How often something happens
Points in a season
Shots per game
Entries per 60 minutes
etc.
Success Rate: How often an attempt achieves a desirable outcome
Shooting percentage
Passing completion
Controlled exit percentage
etc.
If we look at criticism through the frequency/success rate lens, it becomes 1) far less personal and 2) far more actionable:
This player has excellent offensive frequency (he touches the puck a ton) but his success rate can be better (he gives it away more often than he should).
We can work with this.
The Rules of Getting Better
Not only are frequency and success rate the most important evaluation criteria in a player’s game, but these two items are also intractably linked.
There are two rules governing the relationship between frequency and success rate:
It’s about finding a sweet spot rather than maximising output
As one output changes, so does the other
1) Everyone Has a Sweet Spot
Let’s say you’re shooting 2%. Obviously that’s bad because almost nothing is going in. You’re looking for a better success rate.
But shooting 50% is bad too because you’re probably being overly selective and leaving opportunities on the table.
One shot per game is not frequent enough if you want to be a difference-maker offensively, but 10 shots per game can be a negative as well if you’re chucking pucks from all over the ice instead of holding and looking for higher-quality plays.
So you’ll need to find a combination of frequency and success rate that makes sense for you.
It could be five shots at game at 15% conversion. It could be something else.
But that sweetspot exists for all aspects of your game.
2) Frequency and Success Rate Are Closely Related
Let’s say that you rebuild your shot and go from a 15% to a 20% true-talent shooter from the high slot.
Your success rate’s changed. But so has your frequency, because your opponents will quickly cue in and start playing you differently.
Maybe they’re flexing out earlier and getting into your shooting lane. In doing so they’ve taken away some of the success rate you’ve gained and influced you to shoot less often.
But at the same time they’ve exposed themselves to other plays. Now you can throw in a deception, step around, skate into the low slot and get a higher-danger shot from closer in.
In hockey, quality leads to quantity, and vice-versa.
Especially at higher levels where defenders react more quickly and, paradoxically, become easier to manipulate.
Setting the Right Goals
Let’s we go back to what that scout said.
He’s low on you because you haven’t found your sweet spot yet.
Your frequency of creating good looks for your team is lower than it should be, because your success rates on your first and second touches are lower than they could be.
Therein lies the idea of "playing a simpler game.”
You want more success rate early in a possession (DZ exit or loose puck retrieval), so that you get more frequency later in the same possession (OZ entry or cycling into the slot).
A player who dominates at a lower level should probably hog the puck and take it to the net himself, because it increases both his frequency (if he passes it he might not get it back) AND his success rate (he's a better finisher than all his teammates).
But as that player moves up, hogging the puck or waiting too long before making a continuation play actually decreases his frequency (because now it's better to play give and go) and his success rate (because Ds can close on him while he waits).
When you do find the sweetspot, your success rate and frequency will start building off each other. You'll be playing more freely and getting more done.
A simple yet powerful developmental goal could be “in the next five games, I want to reach 80% success rate on my first touches in an offensive sequence.”
This means that four out of five pucks I acquire either ends up on the tape of a teammate or results in a shot attempt.
It gives me permission to make mistakes 20% of the time, but also holds me to a high standard of execution.
Best of all, if I can push 80% success rate on my first touches, it means I’ll automatically be improving my frequency of getting second touches, shots and goals.
That’s better hockey.