Leading up to the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, Philip Tomasino is a hotly debated prospect inside the scouting community.
The Niagara IceDogs center does not have the pro-ready frame of LD Thomas Harley or the goal-scoring pedigree of RW Arthur Kaliyev, but according to some of the smartest scouts I know, he is a player well worth taking in the latter half of the first round.
Two years later, Tomasino is on his way to proving those scouts (and the Nashville Predators, who took him 24th overall) right.
The Idea of Projectable Skills
I’m all about making complex hockey concepts accessible to the masses, so let me explain using the simplest words possible:
Projectable skills are elements inside a junior player’s game that become even more effective as they graduate into the professional ranks.
The presence of projectable skills is how a player such as Tomasino, who averaged 1.03 points per game in 196 OHL games, can graduate to the AHL during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season and put up 32 points in just 29 games (1.10 PPG).
Tomasino’s outstanding rookie production is certainly the byproduct of good finishing luck, but even 0.50 PPG is still solid production for a first-year AHL forward in normal circumstances. 1.0 PPG+ is just absurd by any standard.
How can this happens?
It’s because Tomasino possesses a ton of projectable skills.
Counterpoint: Ryan Poehling
I’ve picked on Montreal Canadiens prospect Ryan Poehling in the past and feel badly about doing it again, but the 2017 25th-overall pick is Tomasino’s antithesis.
According to Byron Bader’s HockeyProspecting model, Tomasino has a 43% chance of becoming an NHL star and a 81% chance of at least becoming a league regular. These are absolutely the type of odds you’re looking for in a blue chip prospect.
Meanwhile, Poehling has a 0% star probability (meaning no player in Byron’s database with a similar profile has emerged as a top-line NHLer) and only a 17% chance of enjoying a 200-game NHL career.
When comparing both players head-to-head, not only does Tomasino score more over the years, but he also improves his production after jumping from OHL to AHL. Conversely, Poehling first took a step back when moving from US High School to NCAA D1, then struggled when transitioning from NCAA to the AHL.
It might be unrealistic to expect Tomasino to put up even more points as an NHL rookie, but it would certainly be reasonable to expect Poehling to struggle offensively with the Habs in 2021-22.
In short, NHL teams are much better off selecting players with Tomasino’s progression than Poehling’s.
Tomasino’s Projectable Skills
1) Playing “inside”
Tomasino (#50 white)’s most obvious projectable skill is his ability to play in the middle, while being pressured on both sides.
Tomasino, playing for the Chicago Wolves, backchecks through the middle of the ice and creates a turnover at his defensive blue line.
He then finds a soft spot in coverage between three red players, identifies a 2v1 at the back post, and delivers an accurate pass for one of his 19 assists in 2020-21.
2) Off-puck movement
Many high-scoring juniors only work to create offense when the puck is on their sticks. In contrast, Tomasino consistently moves off the puck to create easy outs for teammates.
Tomasino (#50 dark) stands in support of the puck as the high F3. Reading that his linemate is about to cause a turnover, he sprints to the right corner to intercept the puck.
As a bonus, he avoids throwing a blind shot at net and instead finds another back post 2v1 for a scoring chance.
3) Change of side
Despite possessing above-average speed, Tomasino is not a dominant carrier off the rush. Instead of hogging the puck, he prefers to evade pressure on first touch, then distribute east-west to get teammates involved.
Tomasino makes a clean backhand gather, holds the puck long enough to attract a backchecker, then snaps a pass cross-ice to set up a controlled entry.
4) Power play
A large chunk of Tomasino’s AHL rookie production comes on the power play. At 5v4 he plays the right flank like MTL’s Nick Suzuki, WPG’s Mark Schiefele and TOR’s Mitch Marner. His poise under pressure allows him to work downhill and present a dual threat near the middle rather than the right wall, forcing the PKers into uncomfortable coverage decisions.
Tomasino catches a pass atop the right dot lane and immediately attacks the middle. The PKers stiffen and attempt to block a forthcoming shot. Instead, Tomasino fakes the shot, then makes a cross-seam play from his forehand pocket for a PP assist.
Summary
Tomasino oozes projectable skills. In this sense he is not unlike New York Islanders star Mat Barzal, even though both players bring different strengths to the game.
Through his D-1 to D+2 seasons, Tomasino actually shows a higher rate of improvement than Barzal, but only time will tell whether the NSH prospect can replicate the Islander’s explosive NHL debut.
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