The Florida Panthers are a juggernaut.
At the time of writing the team has a league-best:
56 wins in 77 games
118 points
+103 goal differential
56.67% shot attempt differential at 5v5
195 expected goals & 208 actual goals at 5v5
(Stats via Natural Stat Trick)
As a team, FLA may be the most dangerous 5v5 NHL team in the analytics era, alongside the 2009-10 Washington Capitals and the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning.
So how can its first-round playoff opponent stand any chance?
Learning From History
Come to think of it, the 2010 Capitals (54-15-13, 125pts) and the 2019 Lightning (62-16-4, 128pts) both lost in the first round.
In 2010, the Montreal Canadiens goalied the Caps by riding a red-hot Jaroslav Halak and by chasing WSH starter Jose Theodore. MTL parked the bus and was heavily out-shot, yet won in seven games.
In 2019, TBL had the Columbus Blue Jackets dead to rights in Game One, then made a series of unforced errors against CBJ’s hermetic neutral-zone pressure to lose the series in four straight games. The streaky Sergei Bobrovsky was terrific (.932sv%) while a young Andrei Vasilevskiy imploded (.856sv%).
No matter how good a team is in the regular season, a first-round upset is always possible. FLA will be a tough out, but better teams have lost in more shocking ways.
Identifying Vulnerabilities
In the movie Miracle, Team USA head coach Herb Brooks, portrayed by Kirk Russell, says the following about the seemingly invincible Soviets:
You don’t defend them. You attack them!
Against an overwhelmingly powerful offensive team, sound and tenacious defense are non-negotiables. To have a chance for victory, however, the underdog must understand the opponent’s vulnerabilities, then direct its limited firepower toward those areas at critical moments.
So what are FLA’s vulnerabilities?
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Hockey Tactics Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.