How players can use analytics
A simple way to turn data into better hockey, no math degree required
(Originally published July 2024)
I’ve been coaching hockey since 2007 and working with hockey-specific analytics since 2013. In the past decade, I’ve witnessed a large number of disagreements (online and IRL) of people on both sides of the data in sports fence.
I don’t care for the discourse.
Here’s the most succinct way I can express myself on the topic.
Reality shapes expectations…
…expectations influence mindset
… and mindset dictates execution.
A recent example:
I was talking with a skilled, bright U16 AA forward who aspires to play at the highest level.
At some point during our conversation, she revealed that she had been struggling with her mindset (“a lack of killer instinct,” in her words).
“My coach thinks I should play as if I expect to score 10 out of 10 times whenever I carry the puck into the offensive zone, but I feel like I’m at just a 6 or a 7 out of 10,” she confessed.
“I think you’re getting bad information,” I replied.
The source of the problem is not her mindset - her lack of killer instinct - but rather her coach’s faulty interpretation of reality.
Reality (false): Good is 10/10
Expectations: I need to be close to 10/10
Mindset: If I fail twice in a row, I SUCK
Execution: Constricted, tentative, anxiety-inducing
“No one scores 10 out of 10 times when they attack off the rush,” I said to her. “Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid are closer to 1/10. They fail to score the other nine times, but it’s a high enough success rate for them to be the best in the world.”
Reality (fact-based): Good is around 1/10 even for the very best
Expectations: I want to score every time, but I don’t need to
Mindset: If I fail nine times in a row, I’M DUE
Execution: Loose, natural, playful
There are many other such examples in our sport, especially on the offensive side of the puck:
A #1 ranked powerplay fails to convert 2/3 of the time
High-danger scoring chances are saved roughly 80% of the time
Goalies hold a significant advantage on any breakaway or shootout attempt, unlike in soccer where the odds favour shooters (and where it is the keepers who do the guessing)
Before passing judgement on your outcomes, understand the success rates, learn what good is and then see where you stand. Excellence is just a bit easier to achieve when your mindset and expectations are grounded in facts.