I recently re-published archived articles on Patrik Laine (read) and the puck battles won statistic (read).
Upon review, I put one and one together and decided to check out Laine’s puck battle numbers on the inStat video scouting platform.
Those numbers were…not great.
Since joining the NHL, Laine has only won north of 50% of puck battles one, during an abridged 2023-24 campaign. Last season’s 15/26 was too small a sample to draw conclusion from. Overall the winger’s numbers were far from impressive.
What about for other players?
Here’s Auston Matthews, who was drafted one spot earlier than Laine in 2016.
Matthews, a center, has consistently been above break-even. TOR34 effectively uses his frame to gain body position and has become one of the best at stealing the puck with his stick.
Maybe the nature of Matthews’ position makes him more likely to win battles?
In that case, we’re better off looking at scoring wingers, when it comes to benchmarking Laine.
William Nylander has never won over 50% of puck battles over a season. Interesting.
Nikita Kucherov has topped the 50% mark twice, just barely.
David Pastrnak averages more puck battles than Laine on a per-game basis, but wins even fewer of them in terms of percentages.
Zach Hyman, the be-all, end-all of heavy, competitive, dogged wingers, doesn’t look any better than Laine or Pastrnak when it comes to winning battles despite forcing more of them.
We’ve only looked at a very small sample of six players, but here are some hypotheses we can draw:
Puck battles winning % may not drive a player’s outputs in terms of points/possession/wins above replacement
Some of the best scorers/best play-driving/most valuable wingers in the NHL consistently lose more battles than they win
Position may matter when it comes to determining the base rate
Perhaps centers naturally win more than wingers due to their increased involvement on DZ battles, which are easier to win
NHL teams typically pressure 5v3 low in DZ and, conversely, have to play 3v5 in one quadrant of the OZ (related read)
It would probably be unproductive for the Montreal Canadiens to prioritize fixing Laine’s puck battles %
Laine effectiveness is probably driven by other factors, such as his ability to get into space and find uncontested plays (watch CBJ29 below)