Here is a subscriber question I received after Game One of the Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders series.
The New York Islanders are so boring to watch, but can usually hang in there with top teams. What are they doing stylistically that's boring? Do they have to play this way because of a lack of offensive firepower?
Thanks!
Adam L.
And here’s one I received immediately following Game Two.
Want to go into what changed for the Islanders in the last four minutes of the third period?
Brandon B.
For those who hadn’t been following the series, NYI battled hard in Game One and actually outshot CAR 34-26. Despite losing 3-1, the Isles proved that they belonged on the same ice as one of the Cup favorites.
In Game Two, NYI surprisingly led throughout despite being heavily outshot. The Isles could smell victory with three minutes left in regulation. And then the home team fired a three-goal burst to quell the upset bid.
I’ve already written about NYI’s hermetic, effective (and perhaps boring) defensive play under Patrick Roy.
The most compelling explanation for Game Two’s stunning turn can be found on Twitter.
In the Tweet above, Mike Kelly of SportLogiq noted that NYI won 64% of puck battles in the series opener.
64% is a fantastic number, one that illustrates the Isles’ hard-working, structurally sound play in Game One.
But it also reveals a potential problem when you consider puck battle’s full name:
50/50 puck battles.
Two skaters going into a corner with a loose puck is basically a coin flip.
In a large sample, an unusually strong and skilled NHLer may be able to win 55% of battles against a less-gifted colleague, but not much more.
Any player or team running at 60%+ is performing at an unsustainable rate.
NYI was bound to regress, which it did in G2. Now winning its share of puck battles, CAR built up a three-to-one lead in shot volume. That advantage took a while to manifest itself in the score, but it did in the final minutes of regulation time.
SportLogiq doesn’t share puck battle data with the public, but here’s what I suspect: Like an inflated PDO (shooting % + save %), puck battle win % correlates positively with single-game results. But it’s also a volatile stat that doesn’t necessarily suggest future success.
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